Champions League Round of 16 Second Legs: Arsenal vs Leverkusen, Man City vs Real Madrid and More

Steffen Fonvig
Steffen Fonvig

Founder & Editor-in-Chief

Match Preview10 min readUpdated: 16 Mar 2026

The Champions League Round of 16 second legs take place on March 17-18, 2026. While several ties appear settled after dominant first-leg performances from Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, PSG, and Real Madrid, at least three fixtures remain genuinely competitive heading into the return fixtures. Here is our full data-driven breakdown.

First Leg Results at a Glance

DateHomeScoreAwayAggregateStatus
Mar 10Galatasaray1-0Liverpool1-0Open
Mar 10Atalanta1-6Bayern Munich1-6Decided
Mar 10Atletico Madrid5-2Tottenham5-2Decided
Mar 10Newcastle1-1Barcelona1-1Open
Mar 11Leverkusen1-1Arsenal1-1Open
Mar 11Bodø/Glimt3-0Sporting CP3-0Decided
Mar 11PSG5-2Chelsea5-2Decided
Mar 11Real Madrid3-0Man City3-0Decided

Ties Still Alive: Where the Drama Remains

Liverpool vs Galatasaray (Agg: 0-1)

Liverpool trail by a single goal after a frustrating night in Istanbul, where Galatasaray's disciplined defensive block limited the Reds to just 0.7 xG. The deficit is small enough that Liverpool will be heavy favourites at Anfield, where their record in European knockouts under pressure is formidable. Historically, teams trailing 1-0 after the first leg at home overturn the deficit approximately 55% of the time, and that number rises significantly when the second leg is at a ground like Anfield. Expect Galatasaray to sit deep and look for transition opportunities, but Liverpool's attacking depth should be enough to get the job done.

Arsenal vs Leverkusen (Agg: 1-1)

This is arguably the tie of the round. The 1-1 draw at the BayArena leaves everything to play for at the Emirates. Arsenal secured a valuable away goal and will fancy their chances on home turf, where they have lost just once in all competitions this season. Leverkusen, however, remain one of the most dangerous counter-attacking sides in Europe. Xabi Alonso's system is built for exactly these occasions — absorb pressure, transition with speed, and punish defensive errors. The data from the first leg showed Leverkusen winning the xG battle 1.4 to 1.1, suggesting the draw slightly flattered Arsenal. This one could go either way, and extra time is a genuine possibility.

Barcelona vs Newcastle (Agg: 1-1)

Newcastle will travel to the Camp Nou knowing they let a lead slip in the first leg at St James' Park. The 1-1 draw means Barcelona hold the psychological advantage of scoring away from home. Barcelona's home record in Europe this season has been outstanding, and Newcastle will need to find a way to contain a midfield that dominated possession (64%) in the first leg. Check our stats hub for detailed team form data heading into these fixtures.

Ties Effectively Decided

Bayern Munich (6-1 agg vs Atalanta)

A comprehensive demolition. Bayern's six goals in Bergamo represented the joint-highest away tally in a Champions League knockout match this season. The second leg is a formality.

Atletico Madrid (5-2 agg vs Tottenham)

Simeone's side were ruthless at the Metropolitano. Spurs would need to win 4-0 or better at home to progress — close to impossible against Atletico's defensive organisation.

PSG (5-2 agg vs Chelsea)

Paris were electrifying in the first leg. Chelsea would need to win by four clear goals to progress, which is unrealistic against this PSG side.

Real Madrid (3-0 agg vs Man City)

Federico Valverde's stunning hat-trick at the Santiago Bernabeu has ended Manchester City's hopes. Three goals without reply against a Pep Guardiola side is a statement result.

Bodø/Glimt (3-0 agg vs Sporting CP)

The surprise of the round. The Norwegian champions produced a flawless performance to beat Sporting 3-0 at the Aspmyra Stadion. One of the great Champions League upsets.

Key Talking Points

Valverde's Hat-Trick: A Statement Performance

Federico Valverde's treble against Manchester City was the defining individual performance of the first legs. The Uruguayan midfielder scored from open play, a set piece, and a long-range effort to single-handedly dismantle City's defence. His expected goals from the three chances was just 1.2 xG, meaning he massively overperformed — but all three finishes were of the highest quality. It was only the fourth hat-trick by a midfielder in Champions League knockout history. Follow the second leg action on our live scores page.

PSG's Evolution Under Luis Enrique

Paris Saint-Germain's 5-2 dismantling of Chelsea was a reminder that this squad has moved well beyond the Mbappe era. The goals came from five different scorers, reflecting a more balanced, less individual-dependent attack. Their pressing intensity in the first 30 minutes was among the highest recorded in this season's competition.

Bodø/Glimt: The Fairytale Continues

Perhaps the most remarkable result of the round. Bodø/Glimt, from a town of 50,000 people above the Arctic Circle, beating Sporting CP 3-0 in a Champions League knockout tie is the kind of story that defines the competition. If they hold on over two legs, they will become the smallest club to reach the Champions League quarter-finals in the modern era.

Betting Angles for the Second Legs

With several ties already decided, the betting value shifts to specific match outcomes. Visit our predictions page for model-backed picks.

MatchAngleReasoning
Liverpool vs GalatasarayLiverpool -1.5 AHLiverpool need goals and Galatasaray's away defensive record in Europe is poor (2.1 xGA per away match).
Arsenal vs LeverkusenUnder 2.5 GoalsBoth legs between these sides tend to be tight. First leg had just 2.5 combined xG.
Barcelona vs NewcastleBTTS YesNewcastle have scored in every away match in Europe this season. Barcelona concede at home more than domestic form suggests.
Man City vs Real MadridMan City to WinCity have nothing to lose at 3-0 down. Real Madrid will rotate. Value in a dead rubber City win.

Use our betting tools to calculate stakes and find edge on these markets.

Steffen Fonvig

Written by

Steffen Fonvig

Steffen Fonvig is the Founder & Editor-in-Chief of StatsBet, specialising in data-driven football betting analysis.

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