Italy vs Northern Ireland: Can the Azzurri Avoid a Third Consecutive World Cup Failure?
Founder & Editor-in-Chief
Italy vs Northern Ireland — World Cup 2026 Playoff Semi-Final (Path A) — New Balance Stadium, Bergamo — Wednesday 26 March 2026, 21:00 CET. Italy are overwhelming favourites but carry the trauma of two consecutive playoff failures. The winner faces Wales or Bosnia & Herzegovina in the Path A final on March 31.
The Weight of History
No major footballing nation carries more playoff baggage into this week than Italy. The four-time World Cup winners — a country synonymous with the tournament — have not appeared at a World Cup since their group-stage exit in Brazil in 2014. That is twelve years without World Cup football for the Azzurri.
The timeline of Italian misery reads like a horror story:
| Year | What Happened | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Playoff vs Sweden — eliminated over two legs | 0-1 agg. Italy miss World Cup for first time since 1958 |
| 2022 | Playoff vs North Macedonia — Trajkovski 92nd minute winner | 0-1. European champions knocked out at home in Palermo |
| 2026 | Playoff vs Northern Ireland — Bergamo | ? |
If Italy fail again, they will have missed three consecutive World Cups — something unimaginable for a nation that has won the tournament four times. No four-time winner has ever gone 16 years between World Cup appearances.
How Italy Got Here — Again
Under Gennaro Gattuso, Italy finished second in qualifying Group A behind Norway. The campaign was solid but not flawless — two defeats against Norway, both by narrow margins, cost them automatic qualification. The Azzurri scored consistently but showed the same vulnerabilities that have haunted them in recent years: an inability to close out games when it matters most.
Gattuso's Squad: Quality Despite Absences
Italy are dealing with a significant injury list heading into Bergamo. Seven players are unavailable:
Marco Verratti, Giovanni Leoni, Matteo Gabbia, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Destiny Udogie, Nicolò Rovella and Antonio Vergara are all unavailable through injury.
Despite these losses, the quality that remains is still formidable:
| Player | Club | Role in This Match |
|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | PSG | Commands the defensive structure. Still one of the world's best shot-stoppers. |
| Alessandro Bastoni | Inter Milan | Ball-playing centre-back. Progressive passing will be key to breaking Northern Ireland's block. |
| Nicolò Barella | Inter Milan | The engine room. Drives tempo, links defence to attack, capable of scoring. |
| Davide Frattesi | Inter Milan | Late runner into the box. Scored crucial goals throughout qualifying. |
| Federico Dimarco | Inter Milan | Delivery from wide areas could unlock a compact Northern Ireland shape. |
| Mateo Retegui | Atalanta | 5 goals in qualifying. Playing at his club ground in Bergamo — a huge advantage. |
| Nicolò Pisilli | Roma | Young talent earning a call-up. Could provide energy off the bench. |
Playing in Bergamo rather than Rome is a deliberate choice by Gattuso. The New Balance Stadium (Atalanta's home) is a tight, atmospheric ground that generates incredible noise — and Retegui, who plays for Atalanta, will feel completely at home.
Northern Ireland: Nothing to Lose
Northern Ireland qualified for the playoffs but are missing key defender Conor Bradley (Liverpool) through injury. Dan Ballard returns, which provides some defensive solidity, but this is a squad that knows they are massive underdogs.
Their game plan will be simple: defend deep, stay compact, frustrate Italy, and hope for a set piece or counter-attack opportunity. It is exactly the template that North Macedonia used to devastating effect in 2022.
The question is whether Northern Ireland have the individual quality to take their chance if one arrives. North Macedonia had Trajkovski, a player capable of producing a moment of magic. Northern Ireland will need someone to step up in a similar fashion.
Betting Preview
| Market | Selection | Odds | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Italy Win | 1.22 | Very short. Italy's squad quality makes this justified despite their playoff history. |
| Match Result | Draw | 6.50 | Northern Ireland will sit deep. A 0-0 at half-time is very plausible. |
| Match Result | N. Ireland Win | 14.00 | Enormous upset price, but we've seen it before with Italy in these exact situations. |
| Italy Win & Over 1.5 | Yes | ~1.45 | Italy should score at least twice against limited opposition. |
| First Half Result | Draw | ~2.10 | Italy often start slowly in high-pressure matches. Expect a cagey first half. |
| Anytime Scorer | Mateo Retegui | ~1.80 | Playing at his club ground, 5 qualifying goals, Italy's focal point in attack. |
The Ghost in the Room
Every Italian player, coach and fan will be thinking about Palermo in March 2022. About Trajkovski's stoppage-time strike. About the silence that descended over an entire nation. Gattuso has spoken about channelling that pain into motivation, but the psychological pressure is immense.
Northern Ireland don't have the individual brilliance of a Trajkovski, and playing in Bergamo (a fortress for Atalanta) rather than a neutral or hostile environment works in Italy's favour. But if the score is still 0-0 with 20 minutes to go, the anxiety inside the stadium will be suffocating.
Our Prediction
Italy have too much talent to fail again — but it will not feel comfortable until the second goal goes in. Expect a tight first half before Retegui or Barella break the deadlock. The quality gap is too wide for Northern Ireland, who lack the knockout punch to capitalise if they frustrate Italy early. But the world will be watching, waiting to see if the Azzurri can finally exorcise their playoff demons.
If Italy advance, they face either Wales or Bosnia & Herzegovina in the Path A final on March 31 — and a place in Group B alongside Canada, Qatar and Switzerland at the 2026 World Cup.
For all playoff results as they happen, follow our live scores page. Read our complete guide to all 8 UEFA playoff semi-finals for the full picture.
